For many players this week will be their first attempt trying their hand at NASCAR daily fantasy sports (DFS). Now that the NFL season is behind us, DFS players are actively looking for their next sport to focus on. People who are accustomed to playing the NFL DFS on a weekly basis would be wise to adopt NASCAR as their sport to transition over to.
NASCAR has the same consistent study patterns as the NFL, and for the DFS players who are working during the week this consistency can prove to be extremely valuable. NBA and MLB DFS are very popular but the pool of outstanding players is high, and unless you have the entire day, everyday to devote to study it is very difficult to come out on the winning end consistently in either of these sports. MLB, NHL, and NBA are true daily sports that typically require many hours of daily investigation. These sports listed above are saturated with sharks and their massive bankrolls and algorithms. Additionally with the NBA you must be in front of a computer for the hours leading up to tipoff due to the rapid lineup changes and players needing last-minute “rest” at all phases of the season. If you combine this fact with league blowouts on a nightly basis, often the stars of the NBA get excessive rest time during the later parts of the game. These facts along with the very late player scratches make for lineup and bankroll destroyers. For the reasons listed and more I believe that NASCAR is the best choice for the established NFL DFS player.
With that said, welcome to the 2017 Speed week and Daytona 500! NASCAR starts the year with their biggest race in terms of purse size. This along with the glory of winning the race often leads to desperate moves and late race dramatics. I believe this is one of the toughest races of the season to settle on a DFS line-up or to bet on. As mentioned before I come from a background of betting NASCAR races, with DFS becoming a more recent endeavor. Over the many years of betting NASCAR I can promise you that Las Vegas is equally brilliant in setting NASCAR odds and driver matchups as they are in any of the other major sports. This can be both good and bad as it provides valuable insight into part of what make up a NASCAR DFS contest. As of writing this blog according to the folks in the Sliver state have made Dale Earnhardt Jr. the slight favorite:5/1 followed by Brad Keslowski:13/2.
When it comes to Daytona however there are often several drivers other than the main superstars who are in the mix for the win at the end of the race. This is why taking an atypical approach to selecting drivers can be beneficial, specifically in tournaments. We also know from history that some drivers have a tendency to get caught up in trouble on the super speedways. While one can not predict a wrecker, a few drivers simply gravitate to trouble at Daytona over the years and they will usually be avoided. I will not roster these drivers in DFS or bet on them in the casino for this issue alone.
At this point we know that Chase Elliott and Dale Earnhardt jr. are on the front row for the Daytona 500 but much more information will become available following the qualifying races held this Thursday (2/23) evening. These two races will set the starting lineup for the Great American Race on Sunday. Typically at Daytona starting positions are not as crucial when compared to many other tracks due to the fact the position changes are constant and some drivers opt to go to the back of the pack. Drivers that have a history of deciding to run around in the back of the pack until late are typically avoided as well.
DraftKings requires DFS players to select (6) drivers at a salary cap of $50K. At a track like Daytona there is ample room to make contrarian tournament lineups due to low ownership on some drivers. Additionally the wild chances that many drivers will take usually turns Daytona into an “open race” meaning with a major wreck, half the field could be damaged and essentially out of contention for the win or even a top Ten. This is why picking Daytona is very unique and can spring the new player into the DFS winners circle easier when compared to a typical NFL week. Daytona is very unique and lots of fun! This is a good week to take the chances. Most weeks will not be this loose with driver selections and chances.
I will update the blog after the qualifying races and then we will look at prices on DK in relation to starting spots. As the weekend progresses I will then offer my picks for DFS lineups likely in a platform setting with “Daytona value” as my top criteria for this week.
Finally,if you have no experience with NASCAR this is the best time to get involved. I believe that for your entertainment dollar there is not another sport to attend live which will deliver this type of assault on the senses. NASCAR offers fan immersion at a level that really no other sport can approach. It all starts with Daytona, and NFL fans can look at it this way…..with few exceptions there will not be another dry Sunday all the way until September when the NFL resumes!
Please offer comments or questions as desired.