The Toyota’s have been so fast that many of them elected to stay in the garage during Happy Hour. Maybe this was not the best move for a few of them as the weather changed and some info may have been lost.
The Hendrick team was wise to run more laps than they had planned. As mentioned the weather changed to be closer to tomorrow’s forecast halfway through the practice and that turned into a valuable tuning session.
Dale Jr. had a slight vibration, he worked out the problem in the driveshaft and fine tuned the car. There is concern over the handling of his car in the smaller packs today. I think it was more of the circumstances of today’s smaller packs and draft. His car will likely return to its performance of the Can-am duel.
Drivers that will start from the rear in the 500: J. Johnson (backup car), Menard (backup car), Blaney (backup car) Truex (failed duel post-race inspection height), Jr., Buescher (failed duel post-race inspection height), Allmendinger (failed duel post-race inspection height.) Wagering odds are slightly adjusted for this as J. Johnson was 9/1 earlier in the week and now after having to start from the rear he is 12/1. DFS prices are not adjusted and the driver is scored from their QUALIFYING position and not their starting position.
Handling will be key as usual and starting from the mid to rear of the field could really upset the car considering the lack of practice under forecasted race conditions. If the weather is as forecasted I believe there will be several cars running loose early.
With the new points system (stages) and the clean air factors, running around in the back will likely not occur as much as in the years past.
DFS – I tend to play smaller field tournaments as opposed to the 150 max entry tourneys. I prefer single entry or max 3 entry tournaments. If a player is entering 150 lineups (x $20 = $3K) into a 40 driver field at Daytona they had better hope “the big one” does not occur. There will be close to 30,000 entries into the big tournament and 150 lineups is a drop in the bucket. I’d much rather use that $3K in a smaller field, higher priced tournament.
If you play cash or 50/50 games that is a safer approach but beware of the vig! With the double ups, and low-cost head to heads the vig. is really high and it makes turning a profit difficult.
Try to play the largest fields 50/50s possible (within your budget) over double ups. If you do not know or understand the vig. please learn about it’s wrecking ball like impact. The vig. (vigorish) is the most understated part of DFS or wagering in general.
When the vig. is as high as it is on Draftkings (-120) in most cases playing tournaments is easier to swallow provided you can handle losing. If you are a tournament player you will lose much more than you will win in terms of frequency. However, if you hit it can and should carry you for months if not the year.
Season long Fantasy NASCAR – If you have driver or matchup questions please send them to me and I’d be happy to discuss.
Wagering – As of now I still like Hamlin as the winner of the 500 with the odds value at 15/2 or 7.5/1. More to come later on the longer shots and potential spoilers.
Picks for wagering and DFS will come out when they are ready. I do not rush this ever as the feel of the picks along with my own self-interested investigation (similar to Columbo, but not as well dressed) into the drivers/teams must be at a level of comfort to make the best choices possible.
Have a good Saturday!