Before beginning this week’s race festivities at Atlanta I want to reiterate a few things and again formally say what is obvious.
Wagering on NASCAR or any other sport is largely illegal in the United States with the exceptions of Nevada, Oregon, Delaware, and Montana. This appears to be changing slowly as more states “wise up.”
Daily Fantasy is legal in many states, please follow geographical laws.
If wagering on NASCAR or playing DFS please do it in a self-respecting manner, don’t chase losses, and don’t bet big after you win. The Daytona 500 win alone should cover all bets for a minimum of the next 6 races. Lastly when it comes to wagering or DFS in general, don’t be a typical betting Mamaluke. Please look it up if unfamiliar with the term.
This blog is simply to provide insight for the folks who are interested in NASCAR forecasting and detailed analysis of the sport. This is for entertainment purposes only, except where prohibited.
Race weekend at Atlanta
Many drivers have been fighting loose conditions for most of the weekend due to little rubber being on the track, and smaller rear spoilers leading to less rear downforce. I would expect several rubbing incidents between drivers this week.
The NASCAR teams would like to have everyone believe that they have this stage system figured out. In fact this is untrue and the teams will follow one another like Canadian Geese during the brink of Fall. If a couple teams decide to do something outside the box in relation to pit stops, and then cautions fall their way there could easily be a longshot winner again this week. Additionally, there will be a premium on quick pit stops, pit entry/exit mistakes, and pit penalties as nearly every stop will include 4 tires. Getting on and off pit row is far more difficult when compared to Daytona last week.
DFS Picks – All on the list below are rated in the top portion of their respective price tiers on DraftKings. Drivers with qualifying positions deeper in the field would make better tournament plays. Otherwise all drivers listed below qualify for cash or 50/50 games. Preferred selections are bolded but all on the list are viable.
M. Truex Jr.
DraftKings $8,900 – $8,000
DraftKings $7,000 – $8,000
Wagering – There is no overwhelming favorite to win the race as 4 drivers are less than 8/1 which is tough to buy. With this in mind other than one main favorite I am gravitating toward the middle of the board where some value can be found. Close to 80% of the wins at Atlanta historically have come from the top #9 starting positions. All of the drivers below are of value, with Harvick being my favorite to win. Harvick is not the best value but I believe he is the best value of the 4 favorites. The wagers below should be constructed in tiers so that any winner would result in substantial overall winnings.
K. Harvick 6.5/1
K. Larson 15/1
Kurt Busch 20/1
R. Newman 25/1
J. McMurray 40/1
R. Stenhouse 50/1
Good luck everyone and enjoy what should be a really competitive race!